Econometrics Prof. Dr. Christian Conrad

Contact

Chair of Econometrics
Alfred-Weber-Institut für Wirtschaftswissenschaften

Tel. +49 6221 - 54 3173
E-Mail: christian.conrad@awi.uni-heidelberg.de
Room: 01.019a

Office Hours: Monday 10:00 - 11:00 by appointment via e-mail

Research Interests

Expectation Formation, Financial Econometrics, Financial Risk Modeling, Macroeconometrics, Time Series Analysis, Volatility.

Brief CV

Academic Appointments

05/2011 -- date Professor of Econometrics, Department of Economics, Heidelberg University
01/2024 -- date Member of the HEiKA Strategic Board
06/2015 -- date Steering Board Member, HKMetrics Network
10/2013 -- 09/2015 Head of Department, Department of Economics, Heidelberg University
04/2008 -- 04/2011 Assistant Professor (Juniorprofessor), Department of Economics, Heidelberg University
09/2006 -- 03/2008 Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Chair of Applied Macroeconomics, ETH-Zürich.
04/2004 -- 08/2006 Research Assistant, Department of Economics, Chair of Statistics, University of Mannheim.
10/2001 -- 09/2002 Research Assistant, Department of Economics, Institute for International Comparative Economic and Social Statistics, Heidelberg University.

Education

10/2002 -- 07/2006 Dr. rer. pol. (Ph.D. in Economics), University of Mannheim.
10/2000 -- 09/2001 MSc in Econometrics and Economics, University of York.
10/1997 -- 09/2002 Dipl.-Volkswirt, Heidelberg University.

Affiliations

03/2023 -- date Research Associate, Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)
08/2020 -- date Senior Fellow, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis
07/2019 -- date External Fellow, Center for European Studies (CefES-DEMS)
09/2011 -- date Associated Research Professor, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich

Publications

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Refereed Publications
Conrad, C., and K. Lahiri (2023). “Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters.” Routledge Handbook of Economic Expectations in Historical Perspective. Accepted for publication.
Conrad, C., Z. Enders, and A. Glas (2022). “The role of information and experience for households' inflation expectations.“ European Economic Review, 143, 104015.
Conrad, C., and M. Schienle (2020). “Testing for an omitted multiplicative long-term component in GARCH models.“ Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 38, 229-242.
Conrad, C., and O. Kleen (2020). “Two are better than one: Volatility forecasting using multiplicative component GARCH-MIDAS models.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, 19-45. Supplemental material.
Conrad, C. and M. Hartmann (2019). “On the determinants of long-run inflation uncertainty: Evidence from a panel of 17 developed economies.“ European Journal of Political Economy, 56, 233-250.
Conrad, C., A. Custovic, and E. Ghysels (2018). “Long- and short-term cryptocurrency volatility components: A GARCH-MIDAS analysis.“ Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 11, 23.
Conrad, C., and E. Mammen (2016). “Asymptotics for parametric GARCH-in-mean models.“ Journal of Econometrics, 194, 319-329.
Conrad, C., and K. Zumbach (2016). “The effect of political communication on European financial markets during the sovereign debt crisis.” Journal of Empirical Finance, 39, 209-214.
Conrad, C., and K. Loch (2015). “Anticipating long-term stock market volatility.“ Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30, 1090-1114.
Conrad, C., and K. Loch (2015). “The variance risk premium and fundamental uncertainty.“ Economics Letters, 132, 56-60.
Conrad, C, and M. Karanasos (2015). “On the transmission of memory in GARCH-in-mean models.“ Journal of Time Series Analysis, 36, 706-720.
Conrad, C., and M. Karanasos (2015). “Modeling the link between US inflation and output: the importance of the uncertainty channel.“ Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 62, 431-453.
Conrad, C., K. Loch, and D. Rittler (2014). “On the macroeconomic determinants of long-term volatilities and correlations in U.S. stock and crude oil markets.“ Journal of Empirical Finance, 29, 26-40.
Conrad, C., and T. A. Eife (2012). “Explaining inflation-gap persistence by a time-varying Taylor rule.“ Journal of Macroeconomics, 34, 419-428.
Conrad, C., D. Rittler, and W. Rotfuß (2012). “Modeling and explaining the dynamics of European Union Allowance prices at high-frequency.“ Energy Economics, 34, 316-326.
Conrad, C., M. Karanasos, and N. Zeng (2011). “Multivariate fractionally integrated APARCH modelling of stock market volatility: a multi-country study.“ Journal of Empirical Finance, 18, 147-159.
Conrad, C. (2010). "Non-negativity conditions for the hyperbolic GARCH model.'' Journal of Econometrics, 157, 441-457.
Conrad, C., and M. Karanasos (2010). "Negative volatility spillovers in the unrestricted ECCC-GARCH model.'' Econometric Theory, 26, 838-862.
Conrad, C., M. Karanasos, and N. Zeng (2010). “The link between macroeconomic performance and variability in the UK.“ Economics Letters, 106, 154-157.
Conrad, C., and M. J. Lamla (2010). "The high-frequency response of the EUR-USD exchange rate to ECB communication.'' Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42, 1391-1417.
Conrad, C., and B. R. Haag (2006). “Inequality constraints in the fractionally integrated GARCH model.“ Journal of Financial Econometrics, 4, 413-449.
Conrad, C., and M. Karanasos (2006). “The impulse response function of the long memory GARCH process.“ Economics Letters, 90, 34-41.
Conrad, C., and M. Karanasos (2005). “Dual long memory in inflation dynamics across countries of the Euro area and the link between inflation uncertainty and macroeconomic performance.“ Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 9(4), Article 5.
Conrad, C., and M. Karanasos (2005). “On the inflation-uncertainty hypothesis in the USA, Japan and the UK: a dual long memory approach.“ Japan and the World Economy, 17, 327-343.
Book Reviews
Trautmann, S., and C. Conrad (2019). “Book Review: A crisis of beliefs – Investor psychology and financial fragility, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrej Shleifer.” Journal of Economic Psychology, 74, 102201.
Working Papers
Conrad, C., and Z. Enders (2024). “Die Grenzen der EZB-Prognosen.“ AWI Discussion Paper 747.
Conrad, Christian and Schoelkopf, Julius Theodor and Tushteva, Nikoleta (2023). "Long-Term Volatility Shapes the Stock Market's Sensitivity to News.“ Available at SSRN.
Conrad, C., O. Kleen, and R. Lönn (2023). “Volatility forecasting for low-volatility investing“. Available at SSRN.
Conrad, C., and R. F. Engle (2021). “Modelling volatility cycles: The (MF)^2 GARCH model.“ Available at SSRN and Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Working Paper Series, wp 21-05.
Conrad, C., and Glas, A. (2018). “'Déjà vol' revisited: Survey forecasts of macroeconomic variables predict volatility in the cross-section of industry portfolios.“ Available at SSRN.
Conrad, C., and K. Stürmer (2017) “On the economic determinants of optimal stock-bond portfolios: International evidence“ Heidelberg University, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper Series No. 636.
Conrad, C., and Weber, E. (2013). “Measuring persistence in volatility spillovers.“ Heidelberg University, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper No. 543.
Conrad, C., and E. Mammen (2009). “Nonparametric regression on latent covariates with an application to semiparametric GARCH-in-Mean models.“ Heidelberg University, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper No. 473.
Publications to a Wider Audience
Conrad, C., and Z. Enders (2024). “The limits of the ECB’s inflation projections.” SUERF Policy Brief No 945.
Conrad, C., and Z. Enders (2024). “Grenzen der Inflationsprognosen der EZB.“ In: Wink, Michael & Nünning, Vera (editors): Prognosen in der Wissenschaft. Heidelberg: Heidelberg University Publishing. Heidelberger Jahrbücher Online, Bd. 9.
Conrad, C., and Z. Enders (2023). “Schreckgespenst Inflation. Die Prognosen der Europäischen Zentralbank.“ RUPERTO CAROLA, Issue 22, August 2023.
Conrad, C. (2022). “Prognose-Grenzen.“ Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, September 29, 2022.
Conrad, D., Z. Enders, and G. Müller (2021). “Die EZB setzt ihre Glaubwürdigkeit aufs Spiel.“ Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, December 15, 2021.
Conrad, C., Z. Enders, and A. Glas. “The role of information and experience for households’ inflation expectations.” SUERF Policy Brief No 148.
Conrad, C., and M.J. Lamla (2007). “An den Lippen der EZB – Der KOF Monetary Policy Communicator.” KOF Analysen, Winter 2007/2008, 33-45.

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