Prof. Dr. Christian Conrad Econometrics
Research at the Chair of Econometrics focuses on developing econometric methods for applications in macroeconomics and finance.
Specifically, the research focuses on measuring, modeling, and forecasting financial market risks, the interaction between macroeconomic developments and financial markets, and the expectation formation of professional forecasters and households. We offer introductory courses on econometrics and data science and advanced courses in macroeconometrics and financial econometrics.
News
October 2024
- Julius Schölkopf, together with Lora Pavlova and Alexander Glas (both ZEW Mannheim), have published a SUERF and ZEW Policy Brief on the “Impact of the US Presidential Race on the German Economy: Insights from Professional Forecasters” in which they analyze the impact of the upcoming US presidential election on the German economy. According to data from the ZEW Financial Market Test, financial market experts see a Harris victory as more likely to benefit economic growth in Germany. By contrast, Trump is perceived as pursuing a more isolationist approach and focussing on protectionism. This could hamper Germany’s economic growth potential. Contrary to the economic growth forecasts, the inflation expectations for Germany hardly vary between the two candidates. While German financial market experts anticipate a weak inflationary pressure from the US, they do not expect inflation rates to differ significantly depending on the election outcome. Press echoes:
September 2024
- New publication: Christian Conrad and Kajal Lahiri (2024). Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters. AWI Discussion Paper Series No. 754.
- Christian Conrad visited the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, for a research stay. He was working on a project using the KOF Consensus Forecast data to study the expectation formation of professional forecasters.
- Christian Conrad presented the paper “Beyond the Numbers Professional Forecasters’ Narratives about Inflation and Stock Market Performance " (joint with Julius T. Schoelkopf, Michael Weber, and Frank Brueckbauer) at the ZEW FMT Workshop in Mannheim on September 20, 2024.
- Julius Schoelkopf presented the paper “Heterogeneous Expectation Formation. Evidence from International Forecasts" (joint with Christian Conrad and Zeno Enders) at the Financial Market Test Workshop at the ZEW in Mannheim on September 20, 2024.
- Christian Conrad and Zeno Enders recently published a SUERF Policy Brief on “The limits of the ECB’s inflation projections,” arguing that the ECB's inflation projections are uninformative for forecast horizons of more than one year. Isabel Schnabel, member of the Executive Board of the ECB, mentioned a chart from this Policy Brief in a recent speech (slide 5) at the Bank of Estonia. She used it to conclude that “inflation projections from the forecasting community, including the ECB, have, on average, had little explanatory power for realized inflation over horizons beyond the very short term.” In his Central Banks newsletter, Chris Giles from the Financial Times used the same chart to discuss this issue further.
HKMetrics
HKMetrics ist eine gemeinsame Initiative von Prof. Dr. Christian Conrad (Universität Heidelberg), Prof Dr. Melanie Schienle (KIT) und Prof. Dr. Carsten Trenkler (Universität Mannheim) und besteht aus einem gemeinsamen Forschungsseminar in Ökonometrie und einem Doktoranden-Workshop, der einmal im Semester stattfindet. Weitere Informationen finden Sie auf der HKMetrics Website.
