Prof. Dr. Zeno Enders Macroeconomics
Members of the chair conduct research on national and international business cycles.
They use empirical and theoretical methods to deal with macroeconomic questions, including their international dimension. Examples include the effects of expectations and monetary policy on economic activity and inflation, as well as the analysis of risk sharing in monetary unions. An additional emphasis lies on using experimental methods to study behavioral aspects in macroeconomics. Members of the chair offer courses on the economic policy and macroeconomics.
News
September
- Christian Conrad and Zeno Enders recently published a SUERF Policy Brief on “The limits of the ECB’s inflation projections,” arguing that the ECB's inflation projections are uninformative for forecast horizons of more than one year (based on a working paper published in May, see below). Isabel Schnabel, member of the Executive Board of the ECB, mentioned a chart from this Policy Brief in a recent speech (slide 5) at the Bank of Estonia. She used it to conclude that “inflation projections from the forecasting community, including the ECB, have, on average, had little explanatory power for realized inflation over horizons beyond the very short term.” In his Central Banks newsletter, Chris Giles from the Financial Times used the same chart to discuss this issue further.
- New paper version (Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, Manuel Menkhoff, Gernot Müller, and Knut Niemann): “Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro”.
July
- The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) exclusively discusses the ZEW Policy Brief by Alexander Glas (ZEW) and Julius Schölkopf “How much do financial analysts disagree on the ECB’s future interest rate path?”.
June
- New publication (Zeno Enders and David Vespermann): “Cross-country unemployment insurance, transfers, and trade-offs in international risk sharing” was accepted for publication in the Journal of Monetary Economics.
May
- New paper (Christian Conrad and Zeno Enders in German): “Die Grenzen der EZB-Prognosen”, AWI Discussion Paper 747. German version: see research page. DeepL translated version here.
January
- Sarah Arndt and Zeno Enders wrote a Vox.eu column on the pass-through of cost shocks to consumer prices.
- The Chair invited Dr. Christopher Zuber (German Council of Economic Experts) to give a talk on ˮOvercoming Sluggish Growth - Investing in the Future: Annual Report of the German Council of Economic Experts” as part of the lecture series ˮVWL in der Praxis” on January 23. His slides and a new policy brief on the German debt brake are here.
2023
December
- The 4th Heidelberg-Tübingen-Hohenheim (HeiTüHo) Workshop on International Financial Markets took place in Tübingen on December 8-9, organized by Zeno Enders, Gernot Müller (Tübingen), Ralph Lütticke (Tübingen) and Michael Evers (Hohenheim). Giancarlo Corsetti was the keynote speaker.
- On Thursday, December 14, there will be a workshop on “Economic Expectations, Survey Data, and Forecasting” with Michael Weber (Chicago Booth). Everybody is welcome. In case you want to join, please write a short email to zeno.enders at uni-heidelberg.de.
November
- Zeno Enders was appointed guest editor for a special issue of the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.
- New paper version (Sarah Arndt and Zeno Enders): “The Transmission of Supply Shocks in Different Inflation Regimes”.
- New publication (Rüdiger Bachmann, Almut Balleer, Zeno Enders, Niklas Garnadt, and Heiko Stüber): “Makrodaten: Die amtliche Statistik stärken” (in German with English abstract) in Wirtschaftsdienst.
October
- New publication (Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, and Gernot Müller): “On FIRE, news, and expectations” was accepted for publication in The Routledge Handbook of Economic Expectations in Historical Perspective.
August
- New publication (Christian Conrad and Zeno Enders): “Die Prognosen der Europäischen Zentralbank” (in German, with English Abstract) in the journal Ruperto Carola of Heidelberg University.
June
- Dr. Juan Carlos Peña (Bundesnetzagentur für Elektrizität, Gas, Telekommunikation, Post und Eisenbahnen) was invited by the Chair to give a talk on ˮRegulierung der Telekommunikation in Deutschland. Die Marktanalyse und -Regulierung von Telekommunikationsmärkten durch die Bundesnetzagentur. Die Feststellung der regulatorischen Rahmenbedingungen wird anhand eines praktischen Beispiels erläutert” as part of the lecture series ˮVWL in der Praxis”, on June 6, 14:30 -15:30, in Heuscheuer II, Große Mantelgasse 2. Everybody interested is welcome. The talk will be in German.
March
- New publication (Benjamin Born, Jonas Dovern and Zeno Enders): “Expectation Dispersion, Uncertainty, and the Reaction to News” was accepted for publication in the European Economic Review.
- Zeno Enders is visiting the Banque de France during the summer.
January
- Dr. Christopher Zuber (German Council of Economic Experts) was invited by the Chair to give a talk on ˮEnergiekrise Solidarisch bewältigen, neue Realität gestalten: Das Jahresgutachten des Sachverständigenrates” as part of the lecture series ˮVWL in der Praxis”, on January 17, 16.15-17.45, in room 04a, Neue Uni. Everybody interested is welcome. The talk will be in German.
2022
October
- New working paper (Zeno Enders and David Vespermann): Cross-country unemployment insurance, transfers, and trade-offs in international risk sharing.
December
- New paper version (Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, Gernot Müller, Manuel Menkhoff, and Knut Niemann):: Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro.
- New working paper (Sarah Arndt and Zeno Enders): Shock transmissions in different inflation regimes.
- The third installment of the HeiTüHo Workshop on International Financial Markets takes place in Hohenheim on December 16 and 17.
July
- The July issue of the journal econo features an interview with Zeno Enders, dealing with inflation forecasts, monetary policy, and the effects of inflation on different sectors of the economy (in German).
June
- The article “Das späte Ende der Nullzinspolitik” in the newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung features some statements by Zeno Enders regarding montary policy reactions to supply shocks.
- Dr. Lars Other (German Council of Economic Experts) was invited by the Chair to give a talk on ˮTransformation gestalten: Bildung, Digitalisierung und Nachhaltigkeit: Das Jahresgutachten des Sachverständigenrates” as part of the lecture series ˮVWL in der Praxis”, on June 6, 16.15-17.45, in room 00.010 at Campus Bergheim. Everybody interested is welcome. The talk will be in German.
May
- Zeno Enders chaired a panel on central bank communication at the ZEW workshop "Das EZB-Zielsystem – angemessene Ausdifferenzierung oder drohende Überfrachtung?".
April
- Zeno Enders presented his research on “(Ir)rational Firm Expectations and their Effects” to AWI students. The slides can be found here.
February
- New publication (Christian Conrad, Franziska Hünnekes, and Gernot Müller): Firm Expectations and Economic Activity was accepted for publication in the Journal of the European Economic Association.
January
- The chapter Firm expectations about production and prices: Facts, determinants, and effects (Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, Gernot Müller, and Knut Niemann) is forthcoming in the Handbook of Economic Expectations (Elsevier).
