AWI doctoral student Julius Schölkopf and ZEW researcher Alexander Glas published a ZEW policy brief on financial analysts' disagreement on the ECB’s future interest rate path. They discuss the heterogeneity in expected interest rates using the June 2024 wave of the ZEW’s Financial Market Survey. After the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates in June 2024, financial experts do not expect the ECB to lower interest rates further in July. Instead, they anticipate the next rate cut to take place in September 2024. In general, the majority of participants expect additional rate cuts at every second ECB meeting over the next 12 months. However, the experts’ assessments of future interest rate developments vary widely, indicating a high degree of uncertainty about the further monetary policy path. Christian Siedenbiedel discussed the policy brief in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on July 9 (“Das große Zins-Szenario”). 

Link Policy Brief (ZEW)Link FAZ ArticleWebsite Julius Schölkopf